Premium Essay

S&P 500 Analysis

In: Business and Management

Submitted By Risdelle101
Words 578
Pages 3
EQUITY FORECASTING (S&P 500)
I.Introduction:
Dividends have interested investors and theorists since the origins of modern financial theory. Voluminous research and debates about which is better capital gain or dividend. Despite inconclusive evidence, one fact remains undisputable. Dividend yield is an important component of total return.
II.Analysis of S&P 500 Dividend Yield: Technical Analysis forecasting (Historical data/statistics)
Price action is king as common words for chartist and for those using quantitative techniques in predicting the market direction. By finding the trend, will help on what investment strategy to be used which may also dependent on time horizon. Current S&P 500 dividend yield of 1.96% is just sitting near the all time low of 1.11% (2002). For the past 13 years there is no significant trend strength in its direction. The market is still in range trading strategy with little biased on bearish side. Mark Masuoka does not want to be out of the market entirely. Trend trading strategy is always in the market regardless if it is downtrend (shorting) or uptrend (long). How about for range trading which no signal of breakout for the new trend? Part of trading strategy for this situation is identifying the small movements which common call as swing trading. For technician point of view based on the current chart, Mark Masuoka can use a combination of shorting the S&P 500 with a little swing trades to benefit on current movements.
When it comes to prediction power of short horizon return and long horizon return, we need to have a proper strike balance between speed and accuracy. For short horizon which is our leading indicator can predict a trend early but prone to false signal. For long horizon which is our lagging indicator can predict a trend a little late but with an increase in accuracy. Swing trading strategy can be…...

Similar Documents

Premium Essay

Financial Analysis of Hi-P International

...Hi-P International Ltd. Singapore Financial Analysis Finance 101 G11 Group 9 Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3 INTRODUCTION 4 MACRO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS 4 INDUSTRY OUTLOOK 3 INDUSTRY PLAYERS 3 HI-P REVISITED 4 FINANCIALS 5 RATIOS 5 VALUATION 6 CORPORATE VALUATION MODEL 7 DIVIDEND DISCOUNT MODEL ...

Words: 5052 - Pages: 21

Premium Essay

Swot Analysis for M&S

.... SWOT Analysis Strengths • M&S were eminent for their meticulousness regarding supplier control, stock and store layout • The victory of M&S under Simon Marks was frequently credited his grasping of client inclination and movements • Provide most noteworthy principles of value • Suppliers use the most current and effective processing procedures Weaknesses • Stocked generic clothing range with wide appeal to the public: buyers often had to make choices, which would outlast the fashion and trends seen in other high street retailers • This lagging behind in case of introducing up-to-dated fashionable clothing to keep pace with the environment actually made them vulnerable to their competitors • They always used British suppliers believing that it would give them highest quality with low costs but actually sometimes made them weak to challenge its competitors Some competitors are using overseas suppliers to keep the costs down Opportunities To survive in today’s world globalization is important. M&S have a wide opportunity to go more global to improve and expand its business They also have the opportunity to consider more overseas supplier which will actually give them cost advantage, rather than suppliers available on a local level. They also have the opportunity to maximize the use of available technology to improve their functioning and to gain competitive advantage. Threats They are in strong competition with Gap, Oasis......

Words: 517 - Pages: 3

Premium Essay

Company Analysis -M&S

...2012) This essay will carry out a company analysis by firstly presenting the key  development of M&S and then a SWOT analysis. Finally, several recommendations  will be made.   Key development M&S was found in 1894 by Michael Marks and Tom Spencer in Leeds. Due to innovative management approaches and quality products, the company expanded quickly and became a public limited company in 1926. By the 1980s, it had been the largest retailer in Britain with more than 260 stores. However, by 1990s, the company had been facing fierce competition, and also its market share in clothing and food dropped dramatically. Moreover, its rigid and out-of-touch management brought M&S into a dangerous situation by the end of 1990s. Its share price tumbled by 4 times from over £0.800 to £0.2 per share in the period between 1998 and 2002. (Yahoo! Finance, 2012) Strengths After experiencing a difficult time, M&S remains as one of the largest clothing retailers in the UK with more than 10% market share in both womenswear and menswear. (Marks & Spencer Group 2012) This strong customer base may be brought buy its superior in-store services and quality clothing. According to the Institute of Customer Service (2011), M&S ranked second for UK Customer Satisfaction Index in non-food retail sector. This result showed that M&S is capable of building customer loyalty through successful brand building strategy. On the other hand, the food business of M&S has a growth of almost 4% by offering......

Words: 1305 - Pages: 6

Free Essay

Literary Analysis on a&P

...John Delaway ENC1102 Professor McGuirk May 20th, 2013 Judging by the way Sammy speaks; he views himself as an ordinary guy, just trying to get by in the world just like everyone else but is a bit more fortunate than others. His educational level is more advanced than what most people in that era would have had. For example, his father had the connections to get him the job at the supermarket which can be assumed that he is from a higher class level family. This point makes it clear when he tells the manager of A & P that he wants to quit. The manager goes on to say that he would not want to make that decision and upset his father. What proves to be inessential in the first eleven paragraphs is the extended detail about the girls walking around the supermarket. I don’t think that there is enough material to actually understand the true story of what is actually going on. The only known fact is that three girls come into the store and Sammy, who seems to be infatuated with one of them, is entertained by the fact of how they come into the store. I think any other character would have approached this material in a less interested manner and would have been blunter about what they had seen at the store while they were shopping and the scene that had occurred between Sammy and his manager. Sammy is an experienced “girl watcher” by how he analyzes every detail about the girls. For example, he quotes “The one that caught my eye first was the one in the plaid green......

Words: 677 - Pages: 3

Free Essay

M&S Analysis

...Part 1 1. Introduction I chose topic 8 because analysis and interpretation of business and financial performance has interested me and I want to learn more about and it is the topic I feel most comfortable with having completed my ACCA studies. Writing reports and analysing business performance was covered in papers F7 and P3 and through this report I will have the opportunity to enforce practically the knowledge acquired. Moreover undertaking this research project will improve my performance at work and enhance my professional and communication skills. I work in accountancy practice and this project will be invaluable experience. I decide to write a research project on Marks & Spencer plc. and the reason being is that I had carried out an investigation on this company before and I have preliminary knowledge on its activities and the sector in which operates. Marks & Spencer is well known and reputable retailer which I personally favour as a customer. Marks and Spencer Group plc. is an international multi-channel retailer with headquarters in London, in the City of Westminster .It carries out the retailing of apparel, home products and food items. It was started as a Penny Bazar 1884 in Leeds selling only British made goods (Enc. Britannica,2004) As of 30 March 2013 the Company’s product were sold through 766 UK stores and 418 stores internationally (www.marksandspencer.com, 2013) 1.1.2 The reason for choosing the John Lewis Plc. as the comparator company ......

Words: 2277 - Pages: 10

Free Essay

S&P 500 Analysis

...S&P 500 Analysis What are you waiting for? Sell it right now. S&P 500 (^SPX) - is the stock market index in the United States based on the market capitalizations of the top 500 companies. It rose to 1924.28. The index rose 2.1% in May, its monthly advance since February 2014. Since the various indictors of US equities market short term risk are flashing, and market correction imminent, so it is recommended to sell the stocks and lock the profit now. Technical Analysis Chart 1.0 source: StockCharts.com The above chart shows that S&P500 has upside since last year, its index price is above 10 days Simple Moving Average – SMA(10) most of the time, and never been under or touched the 200 days SMA, recent index price close at 1924.28 which is above SMA(10) far away 1796.98 SMA(200). That is a clear buy signal in both short-term and long-term. It is obvious to spot the upward trend -a buy signal will be developed when the MACD line just crossed above the signal line, the green upward arrows are used to illustrate this phenomenon. While the red downward arrows are used to demonstrate the development of the sell signal, when the MACD line crossed the signal line from below, confirmed by crossing the zero line as well, a downtrend would be formed. The green circle highlighted our recent closing of the MACD is above the signal line, indicating an uptrend at the moment. Momentum is measured by Relative Strength Index (RSI), the light blue......

Words: 903 - Pages: 4

Free Essay

A Study on S&P 500 Index Stock Return and Volatility Using Arima and Garch Modeling

...A Study on S&P 500 Index Stock Return and Volatility using ARIMA and GARCH Modeling Kaiyuan Song, Di Wu Summary In this project we first checked consistency and seasonality of S&P500 index stock performance by splitting its recent twenty years historical data into ten two year data and built ARIMA and GARCH models for each sub-period. We found that the models are considerably consistent before 2007-2008 sub-period, and there exists some minor seasonality in several subperiods, but no particular pattern can be identified for the whole period. We then tried to predict future return, volatility and VaR using the model we built for the last sub-period based on rolling forecast procedure. Though the fitted values of 10th sub-period model are very acceptable, the predicted values are reasonable yet far from satisfactory. Only some future volatility can be predicted using one-step ahead rolling forecast, and return prediction is not much better than just using historical mean, which is almost 0, to predict. These results suggest that external variables are needed for more accurate predictions, time series models alone are not sufficient. Data S&P500 index daily closing price from 1993 to 2012 are obtained from yahoo finance website. It is one of the best measures of current state of U.S. domestic economy, therefore by studying its fluctuations, consistency, seasonality and make predictions, one can determine if it is a good time to invest in U.S. stock......

Words: 1146 - Pages: 5

Free Essay

Short Story Analysis: a&P

...John Updike is the author of “A&P”. Sammy, the narrator, is a grocery store cashier, and he observes the store. He finds interest in girls that walk in the store with bathing suits on. Everyone in the store wonders why these girls are walking in the grocery store with bathing suits, when there is not a beach for miles. He starts to observe them as they walk up and down the aisles. Who out of the three girls is the boss? Why are they here? As he starts to feel that it is his job to observe every move they make, he starts to describe them in more detail. Sammy finds out that his friends are being demeaning towards the girls and decides to take action. Sammy gains the confidence to quit his job and become Mr. Hero after viewing this misogynistic nature. He feels that they are beautiful in their own different way. The girl’s uniqueness is what caught his attention, thus showing Sammy’s unique mindset. From the beginning of the story he starts to describe the first girl he sees. He states “The one that caught my eye first was the one in the plaid green two-piece. She was a chunky kid, with a good tan and a sweet broad soft-looking can with those two crescents of white just under it… (1013).” He starts to talk about what she had on then talks about the tan she had. Why did he care about her tan like that? He was trying to say that her tan was not fully complete because she had parts of her body that the sun did not hit. Maybe she was not in the right position for the sun to hit......

Words: 1230 - Pages: 5

Premium Essay

Four P Analysis

...4P AND STP ANAYSIS OF 2 PRODUCTS Submitted by: F102 SOLN: Product 1 – Ponds 4p Analysis Product – * Ponds is a brand of beauty and health products. It is mostly exclusively marketed to women. It is projected as an all purpose skincare brand Price – * The aim of the product is to provide a high quality product at a low price. Hence the price of the product is on the lower side Place – * As the product is not a utility product, it has little presence in the rural areas. The major distribution channel is the local grocery shops Promotion – * The baseline of Ponds is “As beautiful as you want to be”. It also sends out a message clearly saying that the cream makes your skin softer. STP Segmentation – * Personal Skin Cream – Range of variant creams Targeting – * Women with beauty as a priority Positioning – * It positions itself as a product that helps women across the world to help care for their skin Product 2- AXE 4p analysis Product – * Axe is an iconic brand of male deodorants launched in India in 1999 with Axe Deodorants. Axe has a variety of male grooming products such as Axe Aftershave Lotions & Axe Body wash. Pricing Strategy – * Axe is a Premium brand in Male deodorant industry and is also priced at a normal price targeting the youth of Middle and Upper Middle class. Place – * Axe is distributed all over India with primary focus on Tier -1 and Tier-2 cities and is available in All......

Words: 320 - Pages: 2

Premium Essay

S/P Aka Careplan

...NEC, Depressive disorder, Chronic pain NEC, Hypertension NEC, Insomnia NOS, Alcohol cirrhosis liver. Stump is still draining, swollen (2/19) Code Status: I (full) Reason for admission to Facility: Rehab for AKA (Above the Knee Amputation) Past Medical History (from chart):Chronic pain, traumatic blindness right eye, COPD, Asthma, restless leg syndrome, obstructive sleep apnea, AFIB, sick sinus syndrome, HTN, venous insufficiency, cirrhosis(liver),esophageal varices with bleed. Admitting/ Attending Physician: Dr Andreas/ Burnside Diet ordered:Regular Activity Ordered: Up as tolerated/PT Transfer Assistance: 1-person Toileting:Assist Isolation: No Oxygen: 3 L/min Finger Sticks: NA Vital Signs from Previous Shift: T:98.2f P:84 R:18 BP:129/83 Height: 6’1” Weight:232lbs. BMI:30.6 IV Site: none IV Fluids: none Last 24 hrs intake: na Output: na Patient Introduction (2-3 sentences):RM is a a 68 year old male. A former Los Angeles police sergeant (25 yrs), and most recently a Redi-Mix concrete driver, RM is a real class act. He is facing the fact that he “might not live as long as he previously thought”. But he is accepting his condition rather than wallowing in pity, and is grateful to have some relief from his chronic pain. He experiences PLP (phantom limb pain). He previously had a total left knee arthroplasty that his body rejected. He seems to be somewhat antibiotic resistant, he suffered a staph infection and......

Words: 2041 - Pages: 9

Free Essay

Beta vs. S&P 500

...portfolio might have been had it existed at an earlier point. In effect, this information provides historical performance data in reference to the risk and volatility associated with the income portfolio against market performance, for which the S&P 500 is used. The spreadsheet lists all of the companies on the Income Portfolio watch list that began paying out dividends at the end of the second quarter, July 31, 1980. (This makes up 48 companies.) The first three sections show up, down, and raw betas for each company. The first section shows betas for the 10 years: July 31, 1980 – Dec 31, 1990; the second section shows betas for the 20 years: July 31, 1980 – Dec 31, 2000; and the third section shows betas for the 30 years: July 31, 1980 – Dec 31, 2010. At the bottom of the sections there is a “portfolio average beta” for each of the 10, 20, and 30 years, respectively. The 10, 20, and 30 year portfolio betas are as follows: 10 years: 0.785 20 years: 0.703 30 years: 0.686 *These portfolio betas are compared to the beta for the market (the S&P 500) which is always 1. The fact that the portfolio betas are significantly lower than 1 indicates that the portfolio would have carried significantly less risk than the S&P 500 for each time period shown. The fourth section on the spreadsheet is the total return components for each company, also shown as an annualized return for the entire 30 year period. The total return components are shown such that (% Div......

Words: 553 - Pages: 3

Premium Essay

Swot Analysis for S Pack

...SWOT Analysis for S Pack * Strengths S pack is a new design of backpacks that is more useful, affordable, spacious, and practical for college students than other backpack styles in today market. S Pack comes in different colors and a variety of styles that college students can have more choices. It’s designed to make with even more space than other backpacks in the market and can be carried up to any reasonable weigh. They are sectioned off into many different compartments for college student needs such as water bottle holders, headphone, phone, Mp3 player, and extra accessory storages. This product also comes with an adjustable strap on the sides where college students can fix the weight on their backs whether it’s too heavy or light. * Weaknesses Using wrong type of material can make S pack less durable and cause college students’ back pain when carrying heavy items. To prevent this, S Pack has to be made by good, strong materials to last long that college students will enjoy when carrying and using it. * Opportunities Since our marketing goal is making the highest profit we can, we will introduce our S Pack to both online and in-store markets. An online S Pack market has more opportunities. However, both markets will bring us profit. First, college students don’t have to spend time going to stores to get it. S Pack can be bought online and get it shipped within a few days. For in-store market, college students who need to purchase S-Packs right away,......

Words: 375 - Pages: 2

Premium Essay

P&G Market Analysis

...PROCTOR AND GAMBLE COMPANY DECISION SHEET The LDL market segmentation for Procter & Gamble is based on three main product attributes. Performance describes the product’s primary cleaning benefit, mildness describes the gentleness on hands, and price provides the benefit of low cost. P&G positioned its three LDL brands very differently. Ivory is positioned to appeal to females, primarily middle-class mothers, who enjoy the benefit of younger looking hands. Advertisements depict a mother/daughter comparison to illustrate this youthful appeal. Its creamy-white color and light scent relates this LDL to the Ivory bar soap, which consumers recognize for its mildness. Dawn is positioned purely as a performance LDL for those who seek superior grease-cutting abilities. By allocating most of the marketing budget towards coupons, this brand seeks early-adoption by new customers in hopes of promoting brand loyalty among households. Joy is the original LDL manufactured by P&G, and is positioned as a reliable and recognizable option due to its unique yellow color and fresh lemon scent. Procter & Gamble should implement product improvements on an existing brand. As a successful, established performance brand primarily recognized for its grease-cutting abilities, Dawn is the preferred brand for performance improvements. The improvement of an existing brand will require roughly $20 million in capital costs, similar to those required to introduce a new brand. However...

Words: 610 - Pages: 3

Premium Essay

P&G Analysis

...functional value. 1.2 The sales people concerned that if they launched a product without enough difference from other products, retailers would replacing units within the existing line. The sale of Scope may decline, or P&G may pay 50000 per stock-keeping unit in listing fees to add the new brand. Either way was costly. 1.3 The Market Research people concerned that Adding reassurances to a product often takes time before consumer accepts the idea. 1.4 The Market Research people concerned that if they launched new products, the new one might cannibalize a large amount of Scope’s sales.(Like warner-lambert, they launched listermint but listermint’s market share "primarily at the expense of listerine and smaller brands") 1.5 The Finance people concerned that launching a line extension would cost a large amount of money. 1.6 The Purchasing people concerned that when P&G launched new product the price of ingredients would increased by 50% and the packaging costs would increase by 0.3 USD per unit. 2 High risk 2.1 The PDD people though it was not easy to replicate Plax’s clinical results with P&G’s stringent test methodology. 2.2 Market Research people concerned that the launch of new product might not increase competitive users’ desire to purchase Scope. 2.3 If P&g launched new product, other companies would also do the same thing.(Game Theory)...

Words: 296 - Pages: 2

Premium Essay

V , S Case Analysis

...Yu, Wantao (2011) Operations strategy, business environment, operations resources and performance: an empirical study of retail firms in China. PhD thesis, University of Nottingham. Access from the University of Nottingham repository: http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/14191/1/546558.pdf Copyright and reuse: The Nottingham ePrints service makes this work by researchers of the University of Nottingham available open access under the following conditions. · Copyright and all moral rights to the version of the paper presented here belong to the individual author(s) and/or other copyright owners. · To the extent reasonable and practicable the material made available in Nottingham ePrints has been checked for eligibility before being made available. · Copies of full items can be used for personal research or study, educational, or notfor-profit purposes without prior permission or charge provided that the authors, title and full bibliographic details are credited, a hyperlink and/or URL is given for the original metadata page and the content is not changed in any way. · Quotations or similar reproductions must be sufficiently acknowledged. Please see our full end user licence at: http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/end_user_agreement.pdf A note on versions: The version presented here may differ from the published version or from the version of record. If you wish to cite this item you are advised to consult the publisher’s version. Please see the...

Words: 19791 - Pages: 80