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S&P 500 Analysis

In: Business and Management

Submitted By Risdelle101
Words 578
Pages 3
Dividends have interested investors and theorists since the origins of modern financial theory. Voluminous research and debates about which is better capital gain or dividend. Despite inconclusive evidence, one fact remains undisputable. Dividend yield is an important component of total return.
II.Analysis of S&P 500 Dividend Yield: Technical Analysis forecasting (Historical data/statistics)
Price action is king as common words for chartist and for those using quantitative techniques in predicting the market direction. By finding the trend, will help on what investment strategy to be used which may also dependent on time horizon. Current S&P 500 dividend yield of 1.96% is just sitting near the all time low of 1.11% (2002). For the past 13 years there is no significant trend strength in its direction. The market is still in range trading strategy with little biased on bearish side. Mark Masuoka does not want to be out of the market entirely. Trend trading strategy is always in the market regardless if it is downtrend (shorting) or uptrend (long). How about for range trading which no signal of breakout for the new trend? Part of trading strategy for this situation is identifying the small movements which common call as swing trading. For technician point of view based on the current chart, Mark Masuoka can use a combination of shorting the S&P 500 with a little swing trades to benefit on current movements.
When it comes to prediction power of short horizon return and long horizon return, we need to have a proper strike balance between speed and accuracy. For short horizon which is our leading indicator can predict a trend early but prone to false signal. For long horizon which is our lagging indicator can predict a trend a little late but with an increase in accuracy. Swing trading strategy can be…...

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