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Perspectives Spain 2014

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Perspectives 2014 – Spain

Forecasting economic perspectives has always been an arduous task, especially since 2008 when the world economy collapsed. The fall of Lehman Brothers created an atmosphere of uncertainty which five years later has still not been completely stabilized. However, as of today, the markets are starting to recover, viewing 2014 as the year of the final recovery. Growth expectations have been predicted in the Eurozone and the recent decrease of the interest rates to a historic low has reinforced the aggressive expansive policy set by Draghi.
Spain is one of the countries which has suffered the most from the described events. Nevertheless the austerity policy followed by the government in the last few years seems to be convincing the markets, which are starting to view Spain as one of the potential investments to make in the next few years. In general predictions seem to be quite confident on its recovery, although on the other hand the economy is not reacting as quickly as it was expected. The objective of this essay is to analyze different aspects of the Spanish economy in order to conclude whether we may or may not expect economic growth in Spain for the year to come.
Deflation Risk
The reduction in the interest rates has confirmed the fears that the ECB may have about a possible deflation in the near future. Although Draghi is trying to convey a message of serenity arguing that deflation is not a possible scenario, the press is waking the ghosts of the Japanese economy. Spain in fact, is facing inter-annual deflation as in October the consumer price index decreased in a 0,1% compared to 2012. Nevertheless this is good news as long as the mentioned index keeps growing at very low rates. In fact as of today, having positive but low rates of increase in the consumer price index will raise the purchasing power of the Spanish population…...

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