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Nestle Marketing

In: Business and Management

Submitted By chrischicago
Words 849
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1. Using the BASES model described in Exhibit 9, forecast the estimated demand (trial & repeat) for the 2 pizza options under consideration: Pizza & Topping and Pizza Only. Most of the data needed for the forecasting exercise is available on pages 14, 15 and on page 34 (Exhibit 21). a Hints: In exhibit 21, there is a big difference between Contadina pasta users and non-users ... This will obviously affect the forecast depending on what proportions are used for Contadina users versus non-users in the population. b On page 14, Nestle’s marketing research department cautions us that parent brand usage could vary from 5% to 25%. It would be worthwhile to judge the sensitivity of the forecast under 5%, 15% and 25% parent brand penetration scenarios.

We present the Trial Volume and Repeat Volume estimates for the Pizza + Toppings and Pizza only products in two separate tables, below. We treat the Nonuser and User categories separate in the left columns and combine them in the right with varying market penetration. The awareness, ACV, purchase intent, and adjusted trial percent were extracted from the case. These values are in bold. The remaining values are calculated.

The target number of households is 95.5 million, larger than the 77.4 million targeted for the pasta launch: presuming an annual population growth of 3% this launch targets every U.S. household at the time.

The overall estimate is more conservative: the trial rate for Pizzas is lower than for pasta, as is the repeat rate, repeat frequency, and repeat quantity. They presume a larger awareness (53-50% vs. the pasta’s 48%), which is acceptable given the success of the Contadina Fresh pasta line.

Pizza + Topping Contadina Brand Penetration Nonuser User 5% 15% 20% 25%
Concept Purchase Intent
Definitely would buy 15% 30% 16% 17% 18% 19%
Probably would buy 59% 57% 59% 59% 59% 59%…...

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