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จะเกิดอะไรขึน.. ถ้ าทุนสารองระหว่ างประเทศลดลง?

ทุนสารองระหว่ างประเทศใช้ ในการการันตีเสถียรภาพของประเทศ โดยมีจดประสงค์หลักเพื่อรักษาความผัน

ผวนของค่าเงินไม่ให้ ขยับตัวอ่อนค่าหรื อแข็งค่าเร็วเกินไป จนส่งผลกระทบต่อผู้สงออกและนาเข้ า ซึงเป็ นปั จจัยสาคัญ


ของการขับเคลื่อนเศรษฐกิจของประเทศ
ถ้ าทุนสารองลดต่าลงอย่างรวดเร็ว สามารถอนุมานได้ วา ความเชื่อมันของโลกต่อประเทศนันๆกาลังลดต่าลง ดังเช่น



ในช่วงไตรมาสสุดท้ ายของ ปี 2015 บริษัทมหาชนของประเทศจีนส่วนใหญ่ มีผลประกอบการที่แย่ลง เนื่องจากพื ้นฐาน
ทางธุรกิจมีการเปลี่ยนแปลง ประกอบกับ GDP ของประเทศมีแนวโน้ มต่าลงเรื่ อยๆ อันเนื่องมาจากการถ่ายโอน
โครงสร้ างเศรษฐกิจจากการพึงพาการส่งออกมาเน้ นการบริโภคในประเทศ อีกทังนักลงทุนยังมีความสงสัยในความ


น่าเชื่อถือของตัวเลขทางเศรษฐกิจของจีนที่ประกาศออกมา ทังหมดนี ้ส่งผลให้ นกลงทุนต่างชาติเริ่มขาดความเชื่อมันต่อ



ประเทศจีน และทาการขายสินทรัพย์ในจีนและนาเงินกลับประเทศของตนเอง ส่งผลให้ ทางรัฐบาลจีนต้ องนาเงินทุน
สารองระหว่างประเทศออกมาใช้ ในการพยุงค่าเงินเพื่อไม่ให้ ออนค่าเร็วเกินไปจนส่งผลให้ ปริมาณสารองเหลือน้ อยลง

เรื่ อยๆ ดังกราฟที่แสดง

ทาไมดัชนีห้ ุน Nikkeiกับ ค่ าเงินเยน จึงมีความสัมพันธ์ เป็ นบวกต่ อกัน ?
ดัชนีห้ ุน Nikkei กับ ค่ าเงินเยน มีความสัมพันธ์ เป็ นบวกต่ อกันเนื่องจากญี่ปนเป็ นประเทศที่พงพา
ุ่
ึ่
การส่งออกเป็ นหลัก เมื่อค่าเงินอ่อนลง ญี่ปนก็จะได้ ประโยชน์จากดุลการค้ าที่ดีขึ ้น และเป็ นผลให้ ตลาดทุนโดยรวมมี
ุ่
แนวโน้ มที่เติบโตขึ ้น ในขณะที่ ถ้ าค่าเงินแข็งค่าขึ ้น จะส่งผลให้ บริษัทส่งออกมีกาไรน้ อยลง และเป็ นผลให้ ตลาดทุนมี
แนวโน้ มที่จะปรับตัวลดลง ดังกราฟที่แสดง

เศรษฐกิจญี่ปุ่นหลังการประกาศอัตราดอกเบียนโยบายติดลบจะเป็ นอย่ างไร ?

เมื่อวันที่ 29 มกราคมที่ผานมา ทัง้ Bank Of Japan ได้ ทาการประกาศอัตราดอกเบี ้ยนโยบายอยูที่ -0.1 % ซึงผลที่



ตามมาคือ ความต้ องการถือเงินเยนจะมีลดน้ อยลง เนื่องจาก คนจะแห่นาเงินไปฝากไว้ ในต่างประเทศแทน หรื อนาเงิน
ไปลงทุนในสินทรัพย์อื่นๆในต่างประเทศที่ให้ ผลตอบแทนมากกว่า…...

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