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Economic Research
Macro Commentary

THE JAPANESE EARTHQUAKE:
ECONOMIC IMPACT ON VIETNAM

March 2011
Vietnam

Alan T. Pham, PhD
Chief Economist

I.






II.

Background
On Mar 11, 2011 an earthquake measured at 9.0 on the Richter scale struck the Sendai region in north east Japan. It was followed by a tsunami wave that hit the shore, causing widespread damage and loss of life.
At last report, the number of deaths was put at 6,000. Total damages were estimated by insurance companies at more than USD300 bn.
This number is sure to increase as a more careful survey of the devastated areas is made by insurance agents.
Capturing most of the headlines was a radiation leak at the Fukushima
Dai-Ichi nuclear generator. The danger from this source, if any, is said to be limited geographically to Japan. But such news tends to carry an emotional effect, because similar reactors are used in other countries to generate electricity.

Analysis

1. Implication for the world economy




VinaSecurities

Sunwah Tower, 5F
115 Nguyen Hue, District 1,
Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam
T: +848 3827 8278
F: +848 3827 8368
E: sales@vinasecurities.com
W: www.vinasecurities.com
Bloomberg: VNSC



Economic Research

Alan Pham, PhD, Chief Economist
Nguyen The Cam Hoan, Manager
Huynh Phu Sy, Analyst
T: +848 3827 8278
F: +848 3827 8368
E: economics@vinasecurities.com



The global impact deriving from this disaster is likely to be limited.
During the Kobe earthquake of 1995, all production facilities were back in operations within 9 months to 1 year.
There may be disruptions of supplies in electronic components for industries in other Asian countries. Auto parts for Japanese factories in Europe and the US may be in short supply for some time. However, most factories do carry a supply buffer for such an emergency
situation.…...

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